Understanding Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 Election Wins

The Associated Press / File

Donald Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections were defining moments, revealing not only a populist shift but also the growing influence of traditionalist and conventionalist movements within the American electorate. These groups, who often prioritize conservative values, economic protectionism, and a strong national identity, have been instrumental in shaping Trump’s base and sustaining his political relevance over nearly a decade. Though eight years separated his wins, recurring themes — including anti-establishment sentiment, media influence, economic anxieties, and conservative values — underpin both victories, underscoring the broader ideological shifts within American politics.

The 2016 Win: Capturing Discontent and Conservatism

In 2016, Trump’s campaign took the political landscape by surprise. Running as an outsider, Trump leveraged both widespread frustration with the establishment and the traditionalist values many voters felt were overlooked. His success can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Anti-Establishment and Conservative Sentiments: Trump’s status as a businessman, not a career politician, allowed him to position himself as a disruptive force within the political system. This resonated with those frustrated by the establishment and with traditionalist voters who felt that mainstream politics had drifted away from their values. His pledge to “drain the swamp” was particularly appealing to voters disillusioned with what they perceived as a corrupt, out-of-touch political elite.
2. Media Influence and Direct Communication: Trump’s approach to media was unconventional and effective, especially his use of social media. By communicating directly through platforms like Twitter, he reached voters who felt mainstream media was disconnected from their interests. His messaging style, often combative and unfiltered, resonated with both traditionalists and those disenchanted with “political correctness,” reinforcing his image as a voice for “real Americans.”
3. Economic Discontent and Nationalism: Economic stagnation and the decline of manufacturing jobs left many Americans feeling abandoned by previous administrations. Trump’s America-first economic platform, promising to bring jobs back to American soil and revitalize industry, appealed to both working-class voters and conventionalists seeking a return to economic self-sufficiency. His “Make America Great Again” slogan tapped into a sense of nostalgia for a strong, economically independent America, cementing his appeal among conservative and nationalist groups.

Trump’s 2016 victory marked a significant shift in American politics, blending populism with a renewed emphasis on traditionalist and nationalist values. His win was a clear message from voters who felt left behind by globalization and disillusioned with the political establishment.

Why 2024 Was Different Yet Similar

By 2024, Trump’s campaign adapted to an altered political landscape but continued to draw heavily from his 2016 playbook. While some core themes from 2016 reappeared, Trump’s approach evolved, reflecting the changing priorities of both his traditionalist base and the broader electorate.

1. Broader Appeal to Traditionalist and Conservative Voters: This time, Trump ran with the experience of a former president, positioning himself as a tested leader. He emphasized stability, resilience, and conservative values — key themes that resonated with traditionalists who desired a return to familiar American ideals. His campaign worked to maintain support among his established voter base while making inroads with demographics that had previously shown hesitation, including suburban and working-class conservatives.
2. Refined Political Strategy and Messaging: Trump’s team carefully tailored his message to appeal to a broader swath of conservative voters. He emphasized security, economic stability, and American self-reliance, framing himself as a solution to current domestic issues. Traditionalist and conventionalist voters responded positively to his promises of restoring a “strong America” in both domestic and foreign policy, which contrasted with the direction they felt the country had taken in recent years.
3. Capitalizing on Conservative Values and Cultural Divides: In 2024, Trump leaned into issues that held particular significance for traditionalists, including border security, economic protectionism, and religious liberties. His emphasis on family values and his stance against progressive social policies resonated with voters seeking a president who would prioritize conventional American values. By framing these cultural issues as central to his platform, Trump mobilized a conservative base that saw him as a protector of their way of life.
4. Impact of Political Climate: The political climate in 2024 was marked by heightened polarization and dissatisfaction with mainstream politicians. Trump’s image as an “outsider” and his alignment with traditionalist values allowed him to channel voter frustrations. Issues like inflation, immigration, and national security concerns added weight to his America-first message, reinforcing his image as a candidate willing to prioritize American interests over global commitments.

Trump’s 2024 campaign combined the anti-establishment and populist tactics from 2016 with an intensified focus on conservative and traditionalist values. His second victory underscores the influence of these ideological groups and reveals their lasting power within American politics.

Lessons Learned: The Role of Populism and Conservatism in American Politics

Trump’s wins in 2016 and 2024 provide key insights into the state of American politics, populism, and the growing role of traditionalist and conventionalist values:

• Rise of Populist and Conservative Movements: Trump’s victories reveal a strong populist and conservative undercurrent within the American electorate. Many voters feel disconnected from traditional institutions and align themselves with candidates who promise a return to foundational values and straightforward solutions. These sentiments highlight the power of conservative and nationalist ideologies in modern American politics.
• Media and Direct Communication: Trump’s success underscores the importance of media in shaping political narratives. His direct communication style, bypassing conventional media, set a precedent for engaging with voters on a personal level. His use of social media platforms and unfiltered messaging has reshaped political communication, revealing that candidates who speak directly to the people can galvanize support.
• Voter Discontent with Globalization and Progressive Social Policies: Trump’s America-first stance and emphasis on nationalism address concerns many voters have regarding globalization and the erosion of traditional American values. His success indicates that future candidates may need to address these issues to remain relevant, especially as they resonate with traditionalists seeking stability and cultural continuity.
• Challenges for Traditional Political Establishments: Trump’s wins highlight the challenges facing established political institutions and parties. The influence of traditionalist and conservative movements will continue to shape American politics, and both parties may need to adapt their platforms and strategies to respond to these shifts.

Conclusion: The Global Implications of Trump’s Return

Trump’s return to power carries significant global implications, including for Indonesia. His America-first policies and focus on bilateral relations over multilateral cooperation could impact U.S.-Indonesia ties, particularly in areas like trade and regional security. Indonesia may find itself navigating a more transactional relationship, with Trump’s administration likely prioritizing American interests.

Trump’s wins in 2016 and 2024 reveal a deep ideological shift in American politics, where populism, conservatism, and direct engagement with voters play dominant roles. As the world observes his second term, the influence of his presidency will likely extend beyond U.S. borders, impacting international relations and compelling countries like Indonesia to consider the global impact of this new era of American leadership.