How the USA 2024 Election Results Could Impact Indonesia

Donald Trump attempted assassination in Pennsylvania on his President Rally (13 July 2024)

With Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the U.S. political landscape is set to experience significant shifts, which will have wide-reaching effects globally, including in Indonesia. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia’s political and economic dynamics are influenced by U.S. policies on trade, foreign relations, and security. Trump’s return to the White House brings a focus on his administration’s historical priorities, such as America-first trade policies, a strategic emphasis on security, and a transactional approach to international alliances. Let’s explore how these changes may shape Indonesia’s future.

Key Implications for Indonesia

Donald Trump’s leadership typically prioritizes U.S. interests and could lead to a realignment of American policy in Southeast Asia. Trump’s win presents both opportunities and challenges for Indonesia across key areas:

1. Trade and Investment: Trump’s previous presidency focused heavily on America-first trade policies, which led to tariffs and renegotiated trade deals. Indonesia, as a significant player in Southeast Asia, may face heightened trade scrutiny under a Trump administration if protectionist policies return. This could mean stricter import-export regulations or increased tariffs on certain Indonesian products entering the U.S. market. On the other hand, Trump’s pro-business stance could attract U.S. investment in sectors aligned with his priorities, such as natural resources and manufacturing, creating select opportunities for Indonesia to strengthen its trade ties with the U.S.
2. Security and Defense Cooperation: Trump has emphasized strong military alliances and strategic partnerships, with a specific focus on counterbalancing China’s influence in the region. For Indonesia, this could translate into increased defense cooperation, such as joint training exercises, advanced military equipment sales, and intelligence sharing. With Trump’s emphasis on countering Chinese influence, Indonesia might find itself in a position where it has to navigate between U.S. security partnerships and its diplomatic relationship with China. Trump’s approach could press Indonesia to adopt a more defined stance on regional security issues, especially in the South China Sea, a strategic area for both Indonesian maritime interests and U.S.-China relations.
3. Economic Realignment: Under a Trump administration, economic engagement may become more selective and transactional, with the U.S. focusing on deals that provide direct benefits to American industries. Indonesia’s infrastructure and natural resource sectors could attract U.S. interest, as Trump has historically shown support for resource-based partnerships. However, without a broader focus on free trade, Indonesia may need to diversify its economic partnerships, seeking stronger alliances with other nations, such as China, Japan, or South Korea, to balance out a more selective U.S. approach.

Potential Foreign Policy Shifts Toward Southeast Asia

With Trump’s return to office, U.S. foreign policy in Southeast Asia may see a renewed emphasis on strategic alliances over economic multilateralism. This shift could have both stabilizing and challenging impacts on Indonesia.

• Strategic Emphasis: Trump’s administration may focus on building bilateral relationships based on defense and security. Indonesia’s role in ASEAN makes it a critical partner for maintaining stability in the region, and Trump’s focus on countering China could result in deeper engagement with Indonesia to strengthen the U.S. foothold in Southeast Asia. This might involve increased support for maritime security and anti-terrorism efforts, aligning with Indonesia’s national security interests.
• Reduced Emphasis on Climate Initiatives: Trump has historically shown less enthusiasm for climate-focused multilateral agreements, favoring policies that support traditional energy industries. For Indonesia, this may mean fewer opportunities for U.S.-Indonesia collaboration on climate change initiatives, a priority that Indonesia has been keen to advance. This could push Indonesia to seek climate-related partnerships with other nations or international organizations to meet its sustainability goals.
• ASEAN Relations: Trump’s preference for bilateral over multilateral alliances could impact ASEAN, as the U.S. may prioritize select Southeast Asian countries based on strategic interests. Indonesia, as a leader in ASEAN, could leverage this focus to strengthen its influence within the organization. However, a reduced U.S. presence in ASEAN matters may shift regional dynamics, requiring Indonesia to take a more proactive role in regional security and economic cooperation.

Prabowo Subianto’s Leadership

With Prabowo Subianto recently assuming the presidency in Indonesia, the U.S.-Indonesia relationship is set to enter a new phase. Prabowo’s leadership brings a strong nationalist and pragmatic approach to Indonesian politics, focusing on domestic development, economic self-reliance, and regional stability. His administration has already expanded Indonesia’s ministerial structure, emphasizing areas like infrastructure, community empowerment, and food security — all of which could align well with the U.S.’s selective, transactional approach under Trump.

Prabowo’s background in defense also opens opportunities for strengthened security ties with the U.S. Trump’s emphasis on countering China’s influence could lead to increased defense cooperation, a priority that aligns with Prabowo’s commitment to fortifying Indonesia’s military and maritime capabilities. However, balancing U.S. and Chinese interests will be crucial, as Prabowo navigates a geopolitical landscape shaped by Trump’s return to power.

Together, the leadership of Trump and Prabowo could bring both challenges and synergies, with a focus on strategic and economic pragmatism shaping the future of U.S.-Indonesia relations.

Navigating a Strategic Partnership in a Changing Global Landscape

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Prabowo Subianto’s new presidency in Indonesia, the future of U.S.-Indonesia relations is set for a dynamic shift, marked by pragmatism and mutual strategic interests. Both leaders bring a strong emphasis on national self-reliance, economic growth, and security, suggesting opportunities for collaboration in areas such as trade, investment in natural resources, and regional defense. However, Trump’s America-first approach and selective economic policies will require Indonesia to carefully balance its alliances, especially as it navigates its relationships with both the U.S. and China.

For Indonesia, Prabowo’s leadership may provide a platform to strengthen its influence within ASEAN and leverage its growing role in Southeast Asia. As Indonesia works to advance its own strategic interests under Prabowo, it can use this period to deepen bilateral ties with the U.S. while also diversifying partnerships with other global and regional powers to maintain stability and economic growth.

Looking ahead, the convergence of Trump’s and Prabowo’s nationalist policies creates a foundation for a more focused and transactional U.S.-Indonesia relationship. Both nations stand to gain by aligning on issues of security and economic pragmatism, but Indonesia must remain adaptable in an evolving geopolitical landscape. How Indonesia balances this alliance while preserving its autonomy and regional interests will define the next chapter of its foreign policy and determine its role in shaping Southeast Asia’s future.